Why a salesperson's numbers lie to you
The most dangerous report in a sales org is the leaderboard. It looks like truth. It tells you who is up and who is down, and it invites you to reward one and manage out the other. Most of the time it is measuring the territory, not the seller.
Results are downstream of a dozen things
A number on a quota report is the end of a long chain. Territory potential. Account quality. Pricing power. The manager. How the quota was set. Product fit. The market that quarter. A seller sits somewhere in that chain, and the result credits them with all of it, the parts they earned and the parts they inherited.
I have seen a strong rep look average on a picked-over patch, and a weak rep look like a star on three accounts that were going to close with or without them. Reward the second one and you promote the wrong instincts across the whole floor.
What to measure instead
If results are noisy, you measure the things upstream of them, the competencies that produce a sale and survive a change of territory. Three layers:
- Will to sell. The drive that decides whether the work gets done when the quarter is hard.
- Sales DNA. The beliefs that decide whether skills hold up under pressure: comfort with money, recovery from rejection, the need for approval.
- Tactical skill. Hunting, qualifying, reaching the decision-maker, closing.
A rep can hit the number with weak fundamentals and a soft territory. That rep is a risk dressed as a top performer, and a competency read shows it before the territory changes and the truth arrives.
The forecast you can trust
This is not academic. A forecast built on last quarter's results assumes next quarter looks the same. Build it on capability and you can ask a better question: given the skills and the drive on this team, against this market, what can we produce? That number survives a board meeting in a way the leaderboard never will.
Use both
The number still matters. It pays the bills and keeps the score. The mistake is reading it by itself. Put the result next to the competency and the picture gets honest fast. High skill with a low number usually points at territory or ramp, something you can fix. A high number with low skill is the one to watch, a clock you have not heard ticking yet.
The takeaway
Measure the seller, not just the sale. It changes who you promote, who you coach, and how much you should believe your own forecast.
Steve SwanstonFounder, Swanston Growth Advisors. Three-time exit executive and Certified OMG Partner.
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